Military expert Kao Chih-Jung Kao (高志榮) says the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is likely to take up to two weeks to prepare and deploy one-third of its military capabilities for its invasion of Taiwan while reserving the rest for potential US intervention. 

At a panel discussing China’s military threats against Taiwan on Tuesday, Kao, an Adjunct Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, former Mirage fighter pilot, and former 7th Wing Chief of Staff, conducted a briefing imagining a potential Chinese annexation. He believes China will first declare the invasion as a “civil war” and intensively prepare its force for two weeks. After that, Kao says China would conduct high-intensity air raids to try to assert superiority in the air, then initiate a battle for control of the sea the following week. 

The panel was organized by Taiwan ThinkTank and aimed to share different military experts’ predictions and suggestions for Taiwan’s strategic responses. Taiwan Thinktank Director Lü Yao-chih (呂曜志) says that the situation in the Taiwan Strait has shown a steadily worsening trend. “I want to emphasize that national defense and security are no longer distant topics of strategic seminars or war games but an urgent reality we must confront every day,” Lü said. “As the president of National Taiwan Ocean University, I have many students who are also naval officers, and they often report that their operational duties are extremely frequent.”

Former Commander of the Army Lee Shying-jow (李翔宙) was also present at the panel. Lee warned that China is aiming to control the whole world. 

Responding to a participant questioning whether Taiwan’s decision to increase its military spending is provoking China, former Dean of the National Defense University Management College Tsao Hsiung-yuan (曹雄源) says it must be understood that Taiwan has no intent to attack China; rather, it is the PLA that is the aggressor. He warns that it is very dangerous to waver on the determination to defend ourselves.