The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) on Thursday, Nov. 6, raised its forecast for the island’s 2025 economic growth to 5.94%, citing stronger-than-expected exports and domestic consumption. TIER Director Dr. Chang Chien-yi (張建一) said the figure could surpass 6%, driven by booming investment and demand linked to the global artificial intelligence wave.

TIER noted that Taiwan’s economy expanded 5.45%, 8.01%, and 7.64% in the first three quarters, prompting multiple institutions to raise their full-year outlooks. The new estimate is higher than the Chung‑Hua Institution for Economic Research’s forecast of 5.45%. Chang attributed the upgrade to robust export performance and the government’s NT$10,000 (US$323) cash distribution program, boosting private consumption. 

However, he expects 2026 growth to moderate to around 2.6% due to a higher base effect, though traditional industries are expected to show a gradual recovery. Chang said conditions next year “will be better than this year’s” as domestic industries regain momentum.  

Commenting on trade relations, Chang said results of the Taiwan-U.S. reciprocal tariff talks could be announced soon, expecting Taiwan’s overall tariff to drop to 15% while auto duties on U.S. imports may fall to 2.5%. “Our auto tariffs may not go to zero but could be reduced to 2.5%,” he said. “We might agree to certain procurement projects, such as CPC buying energy from Alaska or even partnering with its energy companies for joint exploration. But the government cannot make commitments on behalf of TSMC. The company, which plans to invest US$165 billion, may expand further in the future, but that decision must come from TSMC itself.”