French President Emmanuel Macron visited Beijing and Chengdu this month for his fourth visit to China during his presidency, according to a Central News Agency report published this Wednesday. Emmanuel Lincot, a senior research fellow at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), says that as France strongly supports Ukraine, its stance would be inconsistent if it remained silent regarding Taiwan.

Lincot says France’s decline has led Beijing and a large part of public opinion to believe that France is an “outdated” country with low political efficiency, lackluster economic performance, and limited international influence. He cited Macron’s failed attempt to prevent Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) from supporting Russia as one example of this.

Regarding Taiwan, Lincot says France has fallen into a trap of self-contradiction. While as far as international law is concerned, France only recognizes the one-China principle, so it cannot openly support Taiwan, China’s assertive actions now threaten France’s interests and those of its overseas territories, he underscored.

Lincot explained that the risk lies in the possibility that China might jeopardise the free movement of people and goods in some waters it seeks to protect, violating international maritime law and threatening the strategic interests of relevant countries, including France. Even if France is unlikely to resort to military action, it is difficult to imagine France remaining aloof from its obligations to the Indo-Pacific region and the U.S., he added.

While Macron’s trip aimed to rebalance bilateral trade, Lincot said he believes progress has been limited, and the goals are questionable. He says the evolution of Taiwan’s status and France’s continued advocacy on human rights are equally important, yet French diplomacy hasn’t given them sufficient attention.

Lincot argues that France must rely on allies both inside and outside Europe, and France must be prepared to take decisive measures, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese products or exerting pressure in specific areas with the support of Japan and South Korea.