Honduras’ dissatisfaction with the economic results of switching ties from Taiwan to China has prompted presidential candidates to consider restoring diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Official vote counting for Honduras’ presidential and congressional elections has stalled since November 30 due to technical delays, leaving the country’s political fate uncertain. United States foreign policy journal “The Diplomat” notes that the counting delays and ensuing institutional breakdown have put Honduras in a political deadlock, undermining democratic process and potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Central America, with profound implications for both China and Taiwan.

Radio France Internationale reported last Wednesday that, amid the ongoing political stalemate, Honduras is also reexamining a key diplomatic choice. In 2023, Honduras severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan, ending a 82-year relationship, opting to instead establish relations with China. However, during the past two years, the economic promises that accompanied this shift have failed to materialize. 

Honduras previously enjoyed substantial profits from exporting agricultural products such as shrimp to Taiwan; China has since failed to fill this gap. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of large Chinese retail chains has caused a 70% drop in sales for local producers. In 2024, Honduras’ trade deficit with China widened to a staggering US$2.5 billion.

The candidates of the two major opposition parties both listed the restoration of formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan as a core policy pledge, emphasizing that this is not an ideologically motivated change but rather a pragmatic adjustment based on economic benefits. Analysts believe this shift is closely linked to the accumulated economic disparities of the past two years.

Per “The Diplomat,” if the election ultimately results in a change of government, Honduras could become the first country in nearly 20 years to switch formal diplomatic recognition from China back to Taiwan.

Honduras represents a stress test of China’s ability to translate diplomatic recognition into substantive influence. Should a reversal occur, it would be the result of not external pressure but rather unfulfilled promises, exposing the limitations of China’s diplomatic model. For Taiwan, restoring ties would constitute a rare diplomatic breakthrough amid intensifying cross-strait pressure.

Hanna Bilinski, Rti News