A large-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan could result in over 100,000 PLA casualties and 50,000 Taiwanese military casualties, according to a German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) report published this Monday, titled “If China Attacks Taiwan.”

Authored by a team including GMF Managing Director Bonnie S. Glaser and American Enterprise Institute analyst Zack Cooper, the report details the potential impact and consequences of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan from economic, military, social, and international perspectives.

The report says that if China launches a small-scale conflict against Taiwan, the economic costs will impact Chinese exports, causing the electronics industry to face supply chain disruptions. In the event of a large-scale conflict, the global economy would split into two forces: a U.S.-led coalition primarily driven by market demand and a Chinese coalition primarily driven by commodity and raw material suppliers.

Militarily, the report assumes that if China launches a small-scale conflict against Taiwan between 2026 and 2030, it will lose its advantage in future military surprise attacks. It states that Taiwan and the U.S. could also use this to mobilize international allies to support Taiwan. 

In the event of a large-scale invasion, a conflict lasting several months would result in more than 100,000 PLA casualties; about 50,000 Taiwanese military deaths and 50,000 civilian deaths; 5,000 U.S. military deaths and 1,000 civilian deaths; and 1,000 Japanese military deaths and 500 civilian deaths. The report says the conflict would likely end with the PLA withdrawing from Taiwan’s main island but retaining control of the Kinmen and Matsu islands.

The report posits that the high casualties and “spectacular” losses, such as sunken aircraft carriers, would be harder to conceal, and that a defeat could pressure Chinese leaders to shift blame to PLA commanders, potentially triggering a military coup.

Regarding social costs, a small-scale conflict in the Taiwan Strait would likely disrupt food and medicine supplies to coastal areas due to transportation blockades. A prolonged confrontation with increased casualties, the report says, would raise questions about the legitimacy of the conflict, leading to social unrest. 

In terms of international costs, the report says a small-scale conflict would damage bilateral relations, while a large-scale conflict would prompt the U.S. and its allies to recall ambassadors and expel Chinese embassy personnel. Some countries might withdraw from Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and halt BRICS cooperation. As the war would drag on, China would face more severe international sanctions and boycotts.

The report points out that even limited military action would be devastating to the Chinese economy, with costs potentially in the trillions of dollars.