Scholars and military experts are weighing in after U.S. forces’ surprise attack on Venezuela and successful capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife. 

This past Monday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) held a seminar on the operation in Venezuela and its implications. Senior adviser of the CSIS Defense and Security Department Mark Cancian explained that the United States military demonstrated a “very rare capability for coordinated operations.” Such a maneuver, he said, could only be achieved after decades of effort and at least two failed attempts, and that China cannot replicate this in Taiwan.

Cancian is a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel who has chaired Taiwan Strait war games at least twice. He said that Venezuela’s air defense system has about 100 medium- and long-range surface-to-air missiles, some of which were supplied by Russia; their air defense systems are largely from Russia, but they have also purchased many Chinese-made systems over the years. Venezuela also possesses dozens, or possibly more than a hundred, short-range missiles, as well as more than 400 anti-aircraft guns. In short, its air defense network is extremely robust. 

Despite this, Cancian highlighted that the U.S. not only chose to operate around the capital in the most heavily defended area and successfully breached their defenses. He indicated that a key success factor was likely the U.S. cyberattack that disabled Venezuela’s command and control systems, in addition to the use of anti-radiation missiles, which might have destroyed a number of search radars.

The operation has sparked debate regarding whether the United States’ actions set a precedent for China to attempt a similar operation against Taiwan. However, U.S. military expert Kris Osborn said Tuesday that it would be extremely difficult for Chinese forces to gain air superiority at low altitude, as Taiwan’s air defense network is comparatively more complex. 

Given the tactical, military, and political differences between Venezuela and Taiwan, Osborn said quite bluntly that the possibility of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) carrying out a similar decapitation strike is extremely unlikely, if not completely unrealistic. He said that while China’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities are significant, conducting a precision strike of this nature would still be severely challenging even under the most ideal conditions. 

Finally, Osborn noted that while Maduro’s capture effectively paralyzed the entire government, kidnapping Taiwan’s leadership would not have the same effect under a democratic system, where political power is more broadly distributed.