Taiwan scholars say China lacks the capability to replicate the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, dismissing online speculation that Beijing might attempt a similar strike against Taiwan.

Cognitive warfare expert and Chung Yuan Christian University adjunct associate professor Liu Wen-bin (劉文斌) categorically rejected the idea that today's Venezuela could be tomorrow's Taiwan.

Liu said that China simply does not possess the capacity to execute the kind of precise decapitation operation the U.S. demonstrated. He noted the U.S. deployed 150 aircraft in coordinated waves during the Venezuela operation—a level of precision currently unmatched globally.

Liu said cross-strait relations cannot be equated with U.S.-Venezuela relations. International incidents each have their own independence and particularity. He suggested that China itself should be concerned. If the U.S. launched a similar operation against China, could Beijing defend against it?

New School for Democracy standing director Tseng Chien-yuan (曾建元) agreed, emphasizing that the military gap across the Taiwan Strait is not as vast as that between the U.S. and Venezuela. Tseng said Taiwan's national defense and air defense systems are robust. If China wants to conduct a decapitation operation against Taiwan, it would have to think very carefully. Taiwan is not entirely in a passive defensive position—we also have retaliatory capabilities.

Tseng argued that regime preservation remains Beijing's primary objective. He said China would not risk losing its regime just to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan. Instead, it will continue to create cross-strait tensions to consolidate its domestic ruling authority and maximize political benefits.

Both scholars emphasized Taiwan should focus on maintaining sufficient defensive capabilities rather than following panic narratives online.