Radio Taiwan International (Rti) held a symposium on Monday discussing the changes and future trends in Japanese politics following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in Sunday’s snap election. Speaking at the event, Indo-Pacific Strategy Think Tank CEO Akio Yaita said Takaichi’s victory at the polls will allow her party to take more decisive action in the future, potentially even moving into a leading role in regional security.

In early January, Takaichi dissolved the Parliament’s lower house, forcing a snap election. Although the gamble could have potentially cost her position as Prime Minister, Takaichi and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a supermajority in the lower house, even crossing the threshold to propose constitutional change. Her victory is the LDP’s largest ever victory in the lower house in post-war Japanese history, far surpassing that of former Prime Ministers Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe. 

Rti’s symposium was attended by scholars and expert panelists, including Yaita, and moderated by Rti President Chang Jui-chang (張瑞昌).

Speaking at the symposium, Yaita said Japan is likely to move towards a firmer military presence. Under the current Japanese constitution, Japan cannot use force to settle international disputes, and similarly, cannot maintain land, sea, or air forces and warfare capabilities. Because of this, he said Japan has had limited political power, even being likened to a “single-lung nation,” unable to participate in vigorous activities.

However, with the new supermajority, Yaita said he believes that Takaichi will be able to make bolder moves as someone who prioritizes security, even potentially becoming a regional security leader. While he said the current situation is “a long way from constitutional amendment,” the party can still effectuate change through peripheral laws and pushing expanded constitutional interpretation. Yaita said Japan’s reappearance on the international political stage as a diplomatic and military power is likely to become even more of a reality in the future.

As for the likelihood of official Taiwan-Japan relations, both Yaita and other speakers believe the possibility is improbable. Takaichi’s pragmatism is unlikely to allow her to endanger the numerous Japanese businesses and Japanese expats in China by angering the regime. However, Japan’s continued moral and substantive support of Taiwan is also unlikely to change.