China’s official growth target of around 5% is increasingly less an economic forecast and more a political necessity.

According to an analysis published by The Wall Street Journal, the number has become a “political straitjacket,” binding Beijing to a figure that must be maintained—regardless of economic reality.

The warning was first voiced publicly by Chinese economist Gao Shanwen, who said that no matter how severe conditions become, China’s official growth rate would always remain near 5%. After making those remarks at a Washington forum, Gao was silenced at home.

Now, the Journal argues his prediction is being borne out.

For three consecutive years, China has reported growth “around 5%,” even as the economy faces a deep property-sector downturn, persistent deflationary pressure, and Western efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing. The article describes this consistency as a statistical anomaly—one sustained by political will.

At the center of the pressure is Xi Jinping’s long-term pledge. In 2020, Xi declared that by 2035 China would double both its economic output and per-capita income. Meeting that goal requires average annual growth close to 5%, leaving little room for deviation.

A senior Chinese policy adviser quoted in the article says the target now serves as a measure of the Communist Party’s legitimacy, not merely economic performance.

The strain is most visible at the local level. While Beijing sets growth goals, local governments shoulder about 85% of public spending. Saddled with heavy debt, they face pressure to deliver growth numbers they increasingly lack the means to generate.

The result, the article concludes, exposes the limits of China’s attempt to shift toward consumption-driven growth—while remaining locked into a politically mandated number.