The Institute for National Policy Research (INPR) held a symposium on Thursday on “Taiwan Strait security and the special defense budget.” Attending scholars warned that opposition parties’ push to replace military confrontation with negotiations – relying on slogans without defensive strength – would only heighten China’s interest in forcibly unifying Taiwan, leading to a “Beiping model” trap. The Kuomintang’s (KMT) strong push for a “Cheng-Xi meeting” introduces uncertainties, even if the budget advances to committee review.

Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies President Tung Li-wen (董立文) said blocking the defense budget does the KMT “more harm than good.” While the KMT advocates negotiations for peace, it ignores China's repeated insistence that “only unification brings peace” and its refusal to abandon force.

The KMT views excessive Taiwanese military buildup as provoking China, not a bargaining chip, yet it offers no clear negotiation path, method, or price to make China abandon unification. Tung said, “The KMT thinks it can negotiate with China just relying on those slogans and banners; this will plunge into the Beiping model, a forced unification trap. The more hesitant the resolve to resist, the more wavering the defense capability, the more it makes the CCP look down on it, the more it encourages the CCP's interest in using force to unify Taiwan.”

Taipei Medical University General Education Center Vice Dean Chang Kuo-cheng (張國城) noted that China's defense budget continues to grow robustly, with military technology and equipment now mature beyond the learning stage. The proposed special budget is merely “patching up gaps in the defense network.” 

Amid potential April “Trump-Xi meeting” impacts on Taiwan Strait dynamics and arms sales, the KMT’s bid to block purchases for KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun’s (鄭麗文) “Cheng-Xi meeting” clouds budget review. Chang said that even if the special budget went to the committee now, the deliberation process would face cuts and delays. He noted that variables may still arise through cross-party negotiation mechanisms, and that passage was passage, but with cuts, reservations, and extended timelines – this would greatly affect actual operations. 

Chang added that on Tuesday, Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) used the analogy of Qing Dynasty eunuchs “covering their faces with wet paper” to warn KMT legislators that further blocking the budget equals chronic suicide – for the KMT or Taiwan.