United States President Donald Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing Wednesday evening for a three-day visit and meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平). Experts have weighed in regarding concerns that he may reduce support for Taiwan.

According to the Associated Press, retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery described Trump as a transactional president and expressed his concern that should transactional opportunities arise, they could present challenges. Montgomery is now a senior fellow at the Washington think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Edgard Kagan, a former senior Asia-Pacific affairs official who served in both the Trump and Biden administrations, offered a different view. Kagan, now China Research Director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, emphasized that Trump understands the use of leverage and said he believes the president is unlikely to sacrifice U.S. interests in Taiwan in exchange for other gains.

Analysts note that Taiwan’s greatest bargaining chip is its world-leading semiconductor industry. Assistant professor at National Taiwan University’s Graduate Institute of National Development Lev Nachman said Trump understands the importance of Taiwan to the U.S. economy and that this is likely the main factor preventing drastic policy changes.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has clearly stated that U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged. He told reporters in Rome, Italy, that they are opposed to any forced or coercive change to the status quo, as this would create global instability. He also noted that while Taiwan will not be the main focus of Trump’s trip, it will be a topic of discussion.

However, Brookings Institution China expert Patricia Kim warned that even if official policy remains unchanged, Trump may not fully understand the delicate balance maintained in U.S. policy language on Taiwan and could create risk through spontaneous remarks.