China is applying pressure along the first island chain through gray zone actions, kept below the threshold of war, which makes it difficult for the international community to determine whether the status quo has been changed. That came from Ocean Affairs Council Minister Kuan Bi-ling (管碧玲) speaking on the first day of the 2026 Taiwan International Ocean Forum on Wednesday, July 8.

The event is hosted by the Ocean Affairs Council under the theme of ‘ocean resilience’. The discussions are grouped into four major topics: Indo-Pacific security, coast guard law enforcement, ocean sustainability, and forward-looking technology. In attendance are experts from 16 countries, including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France.

Kuan said that from Japan and Taiwan to the Philippines, first island chain nations are facing increasing Chinese maritime pressure. While the specific circumstances differ in each case, there is a pattern of gradual accumulation, sustained long-term pressure, and deliberate containment below the threshold of conventional warfare.

Kuan pointed out that the international community has long emphasized opposition to any unilateral changes to the status quo, but if the changes happen through incremental advances rather than through a single military action, it becomes difficult to determine. She emphasized that democratic allies must set a clearer benchmark for what the status quo they wish to preserve is, as well as establish shared mechanisms for identification, early warning, and coordinated response.