Beidaihe is a seaside resort east of Beijing where China’s senior Communist Party officials gather for closed-door discussions. This year’s annual leadership retreat has just concluded. Attention is now turning to what may have been discussed.
Taiwanese national-security officials assess that the focus may have been on strategies toward the United States and Taiwan, along with senior party and military appointments.
The officials believe Beijing could fulfill promised purchases of American goods in stages, using trade benefits to maintain leverage with Washington while trying to isolate Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines.
They also assess that China may attempt to obstruct another round of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
Beijing has condemned Taiwan’s defense preparations. China’s Defense Ministry called the island’s recent Han Kuang exercises a “wasteful charade” and accused the government of seeking independence through military force.
Taiwanese officials say Beijing may also intensify legal, psychological, diplomatic and military pressure against the island. They believe China could provide political and economic resources to groups that oppose Taiwanese independence and support unification, particularly ahead of Taiwan’s local elections.
Personnel changes may be another priority. China’s military has been shaken by a far-reaching purge that has left senior command vacancies.
Taiwanese officials assess that further disciplinary action could follow the Communist Party’s Fifth Plenary Session in October, targeting officials considered disloyal to Xi.
However, Beijing has not disclosed the Beidaihe agenda, and these assessments have not been independently confirmed.