The Central Weather Administration (CWA) on Wednesday, September 3, said that this El Niño, a recurring climate pattern resulting from sea-surface temperatures, is shaping up to be the most intense on record and that its impact will continue to be felt through next spring. As a result, they predict a lower than usual likelihood of autumn typhoons affecting Taiwan this year.

CWA Director Huang Chun-hsi (黃椿喜) said that sea surface temperatures across the central, eastern, and western Pacific have already risen by about 1.4°C. Under international classification standards, another 0.1°C increase would qualify this year’s El Niño as a super El Niño.

Meanwhile, the effect of the southwest monsoon passing through southern Taiwan and extending toward the central and eastern Pacific this summer has created especially favorable conditions for typhoon development. A total of 22 typhoons formed in the northwestern Pacific between January and August, well above the climatological average of 13.5 and the third-highest total since 1958; only 1965 and 1971 recorded more, with 23 typhoons each. 

July and August were particularly active, with 14 typhoons forming during the two months. The resulting rainfall pushed Taiwan's combined precipitation for this period to 754.7 millimeters.

Autumn typhoons can interact with the northeast monsoon, potentially amplifying their effects even when the storms themselves do not make landfall. But based on climate patterns observed during previous super El Niño years — 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015 — CWA meteorologists expect fewer typhoons to directly affect Taiwan this autumn. The island is forecast to experience a warmer and drier autumn overall.