Reuters recently reported that some U.S. officials assess that the likelihood of China invading Taiwan before 2028 has decreased, but that Beijing could be more inclined to use force if the DPP remains in power for a fourth consecutive term in 2028. Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo (郭雅慧) said today that Taiwan remains committed to deterring threats through strength.

The report, published Thursday, October 1, said that two current officials, one former official, and another individual familiar with the U.S. government’s position believe the likelihood of an invasion before 2028 is increasingly unlikely. They say that, apart from delays in military readiness, one reason is that Beijing is waiting to see the results of Taiwan’s 2028 election. They believe that if the DPP wins a fourth consecutive term — particularly if President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) is successfully re-elected — China could reassess its military options.

In an interview after a press conference Friday, Kuo said that China has been using military threats to pressure Taiwanese people into abandoning democracy since Taiwan held its first presidential election in 1996. She reiterated that, in the face of an increasingly complex regional situation, Taiwan will continue strengthening its self-defense capabilities.

“We will continue to strengthen our resilience under the president’s leadership, including whole-of-society resilience, while also strengthening our self-defense capabilities and working more closely with democratic partners. We will not change our commitment to democracy and freedom because of any military threat,” Kuo said.