On May 27th, the leaders of Japan and the Philippines sat down in Tokyo and signed a joint statement. They agreed to elevate their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership — deeper intelligence sharing, military equipment transfers, coast guard cooperation. And they agreed to begin formal negotiations to draw a maritime boundary between them in the waters east of Taiwan.

Three days later, China's foreign ministry called those talks completely illegal, null and void.

Taiwan said nothing.

This week, three things happened that are easier to understand together than separately. A defense secretary gave a speech and left something out. Two countries drew lines in waters that touch Taiwan without asking Taiwan. And Washington opened a door it had kept closed for years. None of these events announced themselves as a shift. But taken together, they describe one.