Imagine you run a shipping company. Or a small country's foreign ministry. Or a defense budget.

You have to make a decision this year that will not pay off for six years. And to make it, you need to know what one large government is going to do.

So you go and look. And you find that the large government is saying four things at once. Its diplomats are saying one thing. Its trade officials are doing another. Its central bankers are watching you. Its legislature is applauding you.

All of it is official. None of it agrees.

Which part do you listen to?

That question is the whole episode. And by the end, I want to convince you it is not really a question about America, or Japan, or Taiwan. It is a question about what kind of government is easy to plan around — and what that ease is worth.